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Print This Article Tuesday, April 22nd, 2008 Iran: Bush Prepares to Double Down Lewis Seiler & Dan Hamburg Patrick J. Buchanan writes that “the United States…has reasons to want a short, sharp war with Iran.” He suggests that the chance to “effect nuclear castration” on Iran while “rally[ing] the GOP and driv[ing] a wedge between Obama and Hillary” may be too tempting for Bush and Cheney to resist. But will it work? Both Bushes heavily invested in Middle Eastern wars. Bush I’s Desert Storm was “short and sharp”, and the president’s popularity soared. TV viewers were wowed by the Pentagon’s state-of-the-art graphics. Pundits crowed about “licking the Vietnam syndrome” as tanks rolled through the streets of DC in a victory parade, gouging the pavement as the crowds roared approval. Bush II’s second term, begun with a huge pile of “political capital,” is limping to a close after three plus years of quagmire, scandal, and stagnation. But does the president comprehend this? Or does he still think all he needs is a Hail Mary that will—in some future reckoning—secure his place in the pantheon of triumphant warrior-presidents? Our guess is that the answers to those questions are “no” and “yes,” answers that go a long way toward explaining why George W. Bush is arguably the most dangerous man on the planet. We have no doubt that a sufficient percentage of the American people can be convinced that an attack on Iran is justified. General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker went to great lengths to identify Iran as the evildoer that is keeping the U.S. from victory in Iraq. According to the latest National Security Strategy document Iran presents “the most serious challenge to the United States posed by any country.” Most Americans are already on board with the idea that there can be just two nuclear powers in the Middle East—the United States and Israel. The fact that Iran might feel threatened by this arrangement isn’t worthy of consideration. One of the major shortcomings of this administration has been its reluctance to plan for contingencies. “Mission Accomplished” felt grand until it became clear that it hadn’t been. Brownie was doing a “heckuva job” until it became obvious that he wasn’t. A “short, sharp” aerial bombardment of Iran, taking out facilities of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard—declared a “terrorist organization” by both houses of Congress last September—and a few of the nine major uranium enrichment facilities would go a long way toward salvaging Bush II’s legacy. That is, until the blowback begins. What happens when U.S. Navy ships in the Persian Gulf become sitting ducks for Iranian missiles and torpedoes? What happens if Iranian-backed Shiite militias in Iraq decide to turn their guns on American forces, with the United States caught in a vise with no place to hide? What if Iran decides to sling a few cruise missiles at Israel or even launch an attack on the U.S.? After all, the Iranian air force flies some 300 fighters, including missile-carrying F-14s, MiGs, and Phantoms. And then there’s the question of Iran’s allies. Will China stay on the sidelines? Will Russia? A U.S. air strike on Iran would be a clear violation of the United Nations Charter and would be met with widespread condemnation by the international community. It would further isolate the United States as a rogue superpower at a time in which it desperately needs to repair its damaged relations with its European and Middle Eastern allies. According to Professor Stephen Zunes, “a military strike against Iran, either directly by the United States or through Israel, will not likely succeed in curbing Iran’s nuclear program.” Indeed, it will likely motivate the Iranian government, with enhanced popular support in reaction to foreign aggression against their country, to redouble their efforts. Even nuclear bunker buster bombs may not fully penetrate some of Iran’s nuclear facilities, even if all the secret sites can be located. There’s a story about how a young George W. Bush would “double down” repeatedly in order to avoid losing at card games. An attack on Iran would be the ultimate double down, a reckless gamble that could cost millions of lives and destroy the viability of the United States as a world power. The thrill would last for a few days, but the costs would be paid for generations. Lewis Seiler is the president of Voice of the Environment. Dan Hamburg, a former US representative, is the executive director. Print This Article |
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